What School Exam Results Actually Mean

Every school profile shows a wall of numbers, KS2, Attainment 8, Progress 8, English & Maths 5+, EBacc, APS. Most parents look at them, feel vaguely overwhelmed, and fall back on the Ofsted rating.

That's a mistake. Exam data is where Ofsted's lag becomes a problem: Ofsted inspects once every three to five years, but exam results update annually. A school that looked strong at its last inspection can quietly decline for four years before the next one. The numbers catch it earlier.

This is the plain-English version of what each measure means and which ones are worth the time.

Children sit national tests at the end of Year 6 in reading, maths, and grammar/punctuation/spelling. Writing is judged by the teacher.

The headline number is the Combined "Expected Standard". The percentage of pupils meeting the bar in reading, writing, and maths all three. National average is about 60%.

Rough guide for reading the number:

• Below 50%, probably struggling, worth digging into the context (deprivation, SEN intake)
• 50-65%, broadly national pattern
• 65-75%, doing well
• Above 75%, strong, particularly if the pupil intake isn't selective

There's also a "Higher Standard" figure. The percentage exceeding expected. Useful if you're weighing whether a school stretches able pupils.

GCSE data has several headline figures. Ignore most of them. Focus on these:

Attainment 8: the average grade across eight GCSE subjects. Runs 0 to 90. National average is around 46. 50+ is above average, 55+ is strong, 60+ is independent/grammar territory.

Progress 8: how much progress pupils made between Year 6 and Year 11 compared to similar pupils nationally. 0 is average. +0.5 is good. +1 is exceptional. This is the single most useful GCSE measure, because it strips out the effect of intake. A school in a wealthy area with bright pupils will get good Attainment 8 almost automatically, but Progress 8 only rewards schools that actually add value.

English & Maths Grade 5+: percentage getting a "strong pass" in both. National average around 45%. Matters for sixth-form and apprenticeship entry.

EBacc entry: percentage entered for the academic subject bundle. Tells you about curriculum breadth, not outcome.

If you only have time to look at one number for a secondary school, make it Progress 8.

A-level Average Point Score works like GCSE Attainment 8, grades are converted to points (A*=60, A=48, B=36, C=24, D=12, E=0 for reformed A-levels) and averaged. 40 is a C. 48 is an A. 55+ is strong.

More interesting than APS is the "AAB or better" figure. The percentage getting at least AAB with two "facilitating subjects" (the ones Russell Group universities like). That's a cleaner proxy for university-grade teaching.

But for sixth form, leaver destinations matter more than either. Where do pupils actually end up? If a sixth form consistently sends pupils to Russell Group universities, the teaching is doing something right. If destination data shows drop-off or low continuation, the average point score might be flattered by specific subjects.

Progress 8 isn't available for the 2024-25 or 2025-26 cohorts. Those pupils missed their KS2 SATs because of Covid, so there's no Year 6 starting point to measure progress against.

DfE has confirmed it'll be back once a cohort with a proper KS2 baseline reaches Year 11, expected autumn 2026.

For now, Attainment 8 is the best available secondary measure, but it rewards intake, not teaching. Factor that in when comparing schools in different areas.

A primary school with 30 Year 6s will swing wildly year to year. A strong cohort one year, a weak cohort the next, nothing to do with teaching.

Small secondaries (say, under 100 in Year 11) have the same problem. A couple of pupils having a bad exam day visibly moves the school average.

If the school is small, look at three years of data at least. One-year snapshots of small schools are close to noise.